Area of Concern:
Heavy rainfall potential across eastern Hill Country as well as along and east of the I-35 and I-37 corridors.
Threats & Impacts:
Rainfall: (see attached graphic for rainfall amounts)4-6 inches with locally higher amounts east of I-35 and east of I-37.2-4 inches across eastern Hill Country as well as along I-35 corridor (including Austin and San Antonio metros).1-3 inches across western Hill Country and Rio Grande.
Heavier rainfall could produce flooding of creeks, smaller tributaries, low water crossings, and urban areas normally subject to flooding.
River Flood Warnings have been issued for many forecast points based on forecasted 48 hour rainfall amounts. Marginal risk for severe storms across Coastal Plains.
If any strong to severe storms develop straight-line winds would be the main impacts. An isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out, but the better chances will be along the immediate coast.
Timing and Overview:
A cold front and upper level disturbance will produce widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms through early Saturday morning. The heaviest rainfall looks to fall this afternoon and tonight.
Above normal rainfall earlier in the fall and dormant winter vegetation are contributing to above normal soil moisture values for early December. Quick runoff is expected where pockets of heavier rainfall set up. This could eventually produce flooding of creeks, smaller tributaries, low water crossings, and urban areas normally subject to flooding. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. With many events going on today and tonight it is important to remain weather aware.
The overall threat for any severe weather is very low. If any strong to severe storms develop straight-line winds would be the main threat across Coastal Plains Friday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center continues to place this area in a only a Marginal risk for severe storms.
Rain Chances: Very HighRainfall Amounts: Moderate to HighArea of Heaviest Rainfall: Moderate to HighSevere Storms: Low